Investing in Prevention or Paying for Recovery - Attitudes to Cyber Risk

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.Broadly speaking an individual can invest time and effort to avoid becoming victim to a cyber attack and/or they can invest resource in recovering from any attack. We introduce a new game called the pre-vention and recovery game to study this trade-off. We report results from the experimental lab that allow us to categorize different approaches to risk taking. We show that many individuals appear relatively risk loving in that they invest in recovery rather than prevention. We find little difference in behavior between a gain and loss framing

Identifying discrete behavioural types: A re-analysis of public goods game contributions by hierarchical clustering

We propose a framework for identifying discrete behavioural types in experimental data. We re-analyse data from six previous studies of public goods voluntary contributions games. Using hierarchical clustering analysis, we construct a typology of behaviour based on a simi- larity measure between strategies. We identify four types with distinct sterotypical behaviours, which together account for about 90% of participants. Compared to previous approaches, our method produces a classification in which different types are more clearly distinguished in terms of strategic behaviour and the resulting economic implications

Shared cognition in childhood anxiety: interpretation bias in preschool children and their parents

Although interpretation bias has been associated with the development and/or maintenance of childhood anxiety, its origins remain unclear. The present study is the first to examine intergenerational transmission of this bias from parents to their preschool-aged children via the verbal information pathway. A community sample of fifty parent–child pairs was recruited. Parents completed measures of their own trait anxiety and interpretation bias, their child’s anxiety symptoms, and a written story-stem measure, to capture the way parents tell their children stories. Interpretation bias was assessed in preschool-aged children (aged between 2 years 7 months and 5 years 8 months) using an extended story-stem paradigm. Young children’s interpretation bias was not significantly associated with their own anxiety symptoms. Neither was there evidence for a significant association between parent and child interpretation bias. However, parents who reported they would tell their child one or more threatening story endings in the written story-stem task had significantly higher anxiety than those who did not include any threatening story endings. In turn, children whose parents did not include any threatening endings in their written stories had significantly lower threat interpretations on the child story-stem paradigm, compared to those with parents who included at least one threatening story ending. The results suggest that parental verbal information could play a role in the development of interpretation bias in young children

Should causal models always be Markovian? The case of multi-causal forks in medicine

The development of causal modelling since the 1950s has been accompanied by a number of controversies, the most striking of which concerns the Markov condition. Reichenbach's conjunctive forks did satisfy the Markov condition, while Salmon's interactive forks did not. Subsequently some experts in the field have argued that adequate causal models should always satisfy the Markov condition, while others have claimed that non-Markovian causal models are needed in some cases. This paper argues for the second position by considering the multi-causal forks, which are widespread in contemporary medicine (Section 2). A non-Markovian causal model for such forks is introduced and shown to be mathematically tractable (Sections 6, 7, and 8). The paper also gives a general discussion of the controversy about the Markov condition (Section 1), and of the related controversy about probabilistic causality (Sections 3, 4, and 5

Impact Factor: outdated artefact or stepping-stone to journal certification?

A review of Garfield's journal impact factor and its specific implementation as the Thomson Reuters Impact Factor reveals several weaknesses in this commonly-used indicator of journal standing. Key limitations include the mismatch between citing and cited documents, the deceptive display of three decimals that belies the real precision, and the absence of confidence intervals. These are minor issues that are easily amended and should be corrected, but more substantive improvements are needed. There are indications that the scientific community seeks and needs better certification of journal procedures to improve the quality of published science. Comprehensive certification of editorial and review procedures could help ensure adequate procedures to detect duplicate and fraudulent submissions.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figures, 6 table

A Long Baseline Neutrino Oscillation Experiment Using J-PARC Neutrino Beam and Hyper-Kamiokande

Document submitted to 18th J-PARC PAC meeting in May 2014. 50 pages, 41 figuresDocument submitted to 18th J-PARC PAC meeting in May 2014. 50 pages, 41 figuresDocument submitted to 18th J-PARC PAC meeting in May 2014. 50 pages, 41 figuresHyper-Kamiokande will be a next generation underground water Cherenkov detector with a total (fiducial) mass of 0.99 (0.56) million metric tons, approximately 20 (25) times larger than that of Super-Kamiokande. One of the main goals of Hyper-Kamiokande is the study of $CP$ asymmetry in the lepton sector using accelerator neutrino and anti-neutrino beams. In this document, the physics potential of a long baseline neutrino experiment using the Hyper-Kamiokande detector and a neutrino beam from the J-PARC proton synchrotron is presented. The analysis has been updated from the previous Letter of Intent [K. Abe et al., arXiv:1109.3262 [hep-ex]], based on the experience gained from the ongoing T2K experiment. With a total exposure of 7.5 MW $\times$ 10$^7$ sec integrated proton beam power (corresponding to $1.56\times10^{22}$ protons on target with a 30 GeV proton beam) to a $2.5$-degree off-axis neutrino beam produced by the J-PARC proton synchrotron, it is expected that the $CP$ phase $\delta_{CP}$ can be determined to better than 19 degrees for all possible values of $\delta_{CP}$, and $CP$ violation can be established with a statistical significance of more than $3\,\sigma$ ($5\,\sigma$) for $76$ ($58$) of the $\delta_{CP}$ parameter space

A new research agenda for managing socio-cultural integration

Post-acquisition socio-cultural integration has received increasing attention from both scholars and practitioners since the early 1990s. During the past decade, research has increasingly focused on emotions and identity in mergers and acquisitions. This chapter introduces the reader to the vibrant research field and its relevance. This section sets the scene for the book, which provides a deeper understanding of how emotions—both positive and negative—as well as values and identity enable a deeper socio-cultural integration after a merger or acquisition, and how leadership plays a crucial role in making it all happen. This chapter also highlights how the Nordic approach to post-acquisition socio-cultural integration refers to a large community of Nordic academics focusing on the softer social and human side of acquisition, often relying on a huge variety of qualitative methods, and to Nordic companies that are not afraid of adopting a more collaborative approach to post-acquisition integration

Measurements of neutrino oscillation in appearance and disappearance channels by the T2K experiment with 6.6 x 10(20) protons on target

111 pages, 45 figures, submitted to Physical Review D. Minor revisions to text following referee comments111 pages, 45 figures, submitted to Physical Review D. Minor revisions to text following referee comments111 pages, 45 figures, submitted to Physical Review D. Minor revisions to text following referee commentsWe thank the J-PARC staff for superb accelerator performance and the CERN NA61/SHINE Collaboration for providing valuable particle production data. We acknowledge the support of MEXT, Japan; NSERC, NRC, and CFI, Canada; CEA and CNRS/IN2P3, France; DFG, Germany; INFN, Italy; National Science Centre (NCN), Poland; RSF, RFBR and MES, Russia; MINECO and ERDF funds, Spain; SNSF and SER, Switzerland; STFC, UK; and the U. S. Deparment of Energy, USA. We also thank CERN for the UA1/NOMAD magnet, DESY for the HERA-B magnet mover system, NII for SINET4, the WestGrid and SciNet consortia in Compute Canada, GridPP, UK, and the Emerald High Performance Computing facility in the Centre for Innovation, UK. In addition, participation of individual researchers and institutions has been further supported by funds from ERC (FP7), EU; JSPS, Japan; Royal Society, UK; and DOE Early Career program, USA

Doll Play narratives about starting school in children of socially anxious mothers, and their relation to subsequent child school-based anxiety

Background: Child social anxiety is common, and predicts later emotional and academic impairment. Offspring of socially anxious mothers are at increased risk. It is important to establish whether individual vulnerability to disorder can be identified in young children. Method: The responses of 4.5 year-old children of mothers with social phobia (N = 62) and non-anxious mothers (N = 60) were compared, two months before school entry, using a Doll Play (DP) procedure focused on the social challenge of starting school. DP responses were examined in relation to teacher reports of anxious-depressed symptoms and social worries at the end of the child’s first school term. The role of earlier child behavioral inhibition and attachment, assessed at 14 months, was also considered. Results: Compared to children of non-anxious mothers, children of mothers with social phobia were significantly more likely to give anxiously negative responses in their school DP (OR = 2.57). In turn, negative DP predicted teacher reported anxious-depressed and social worry problems. There were no effects of infant behavioral inhibition or attachment. Conclusion: Vulnerability in young children at risk of anxiety can be identified using Doll Play narratives

Measurement of the electron neutrino charged-current interaction rate on water with the T2K ND280 pi(0) detector

10 pages, 6 figures, Submitted to PRDhttp://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.91.112010© 2015 American Physical Society11 pages, 6 figures, as accepted to PRD11 pages, 6 figures, as accepted to PRD11 pages, 6 figures, as accepted to PR